At our request, Baker & O’Brien has developed a historical review (1997 through 2006) and a 34-year projection (2007 through 2040) of crude oil requirements of refineries on the West Coast, with an emphasis on those located in California. In addition, for each region in California (Southern, Northern and Central), the crude oil supplied to meet these requirements was identified by production source, namely, California, Alaska or a specific foreign region.

The key observations from this study, which can be reviewed in the attached slide presentation, were that crude oil production in both California and Alaska has been declining and that this decline will continue through our projection period. As a result, crude oil imports will increase throughout the West Coast, including California. Specifically for Southern California, crude oil imports are expected to increase from current levels of about 500,000 barrels per day to about 1.3 million barrels per day in 2040. These import increases of approximately 800,000 barrels per day will require additional berth and terminal facilities to accommodate the marine vessels that will be transporting these growing volumes of crude oil into the Los Angeles Basin. Nearly one-half of these increases in crude imports are projected to be sourced from the Middle East, thereby necessitating new deep-water berths to accommodate the Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), which represent the optimal vessel sizes for long-distance transportation from that region into Southern California.

Download report here. (PDF)